The objective of this paper is to consider defaultable term structure models in a general setting beyond standard risk-neutral
models. Using as numeraire the growth optimal portfolio, defaultable interest rate derivatives are priced under the real-world
probability measure. Therefore, the existence of an equivalent risk-neutral probability measure is not required. In particular,
the real-world dynamics of the instantaneous defaultable forward rates under a jump-diffusion extension of a HJM type framework
are derived. Thus, by establishing a modelling framework fully under the real-world probability measure, the challenge of
reconciling real-world and risk-neutral probabilities of default is deliberately avoided, which provides significant extra
modelling freedom. In addition, for certain volatility specifications, finite dimensional Markovian defaultable term structure
models are derived. The paper also demonstrates an alternative defaultable term structure model. It provides tractable expressions
for the prices of defaultable derivatives under the assumption of independence between the discounted growth optimal portfolio
and the default-adjusted short rate. These expressions are then used in a more general model as control variates for Monte
Carlo simulations of credit derivatives.
Keywords Defaultable forward rates - Jump-diffusion processes - Growth optimal portfolio - Real-world pricing
Nicola Bruti-Liberati: In memory of our beloved friend and colleague.