Bayesian modeling techniques provide a rigorous formal approach to student modeling in contrast to earlier ad hoc or certainty-factor
based approaches. Unfortunately, the application of Bayesian modeling techniques is limited due to computational complexity,
conditional independence requirements of the model, and difficulties with knowledge acquisition. The approach presented here
infers a student model from performance data using a Bayesian belief network. The belief network models the relationship between
knowledge and performance for either test items or task actions. The measure of how well a student knows a skill is represented
as a probability distribution over skill levels. Questions or expected actions are classified according to the same categories
by the expected difficulty of answering them correctly or selecting the correct action. With this model only a small number
of parameters are required: an expected probability distribution for the skill categories, and the expected conditional probabilities
for slips and lucky guesses. By limiting the complexity of the user model in this way, and to a single level of propagation,
updating can be performed in time linear to the number of test items and typically only about a half a dozen model parameters
are required. Test items can be added or taken away without changing these parameters, provided only that their skill level
is specified. We contrast this approach with other uses of Bayesian models in intelligent tutoring systems for diagnostic
plan recognition or assessment. Other assessment approaches typically require 100’s of conditional probabilities or an explicit
authoring of the structure of the belief network; this approach requires neither.