In standard cross-sectional wage regressions, married men appear to earn 10 to 20% more than comparable never married men.
One proposed explanation for this male marriage premium is that men may be selected into marriage on the basis of characteristics
valued by employers as well as by spouses or because they earn high wages. This paper examines the selection hypothesis by
focusing on shotgun weddings, which may make marital status uncorrelated with earnings ability. We compare the estimated marriage
premium between white men whose first marriages are soon followed by a birth and other married white men in the United States.
The return to marriage differs little for married men with a premarital conception and other married men, and the results
suggest that at most 10% of the estimated marriage premium is due to selection.
JEL classification: J31 - J12
Key words: Male marriage premium - shotgun marriages
Received: 19 June 1998/Accepted: 10 July 2000