Using an incomplete third-order cumulant expansion method (ICEM) and standard second-order closure principles, we show that the imbalance in the stress contribution of sweeps and ejections to momentum transfer (ΔS _o ) can be predicted from measured profiles of the Reynolds stress and the longitudinal velocity standard deviation for different boundary-layer regions. The ICEM approximation is independently verified using flume data, atmospheric surface layer measurements above grass and ice-sheet surfaces, and within the canopy sublayer of maturing Loblolly pine and alpine hardwood forests. The model skill for discriminating whether sweeps or ejections dominate momentum transfer (e.g. the sign of ΔS _o ) agrees well with wind-tunnel measurements in the outer and surface layers, and flume measurements within the canopy sublayer for both sparse and dense vegetation. The broader impact of this work is that the “genesis” of the imbalance in ΔS _o is primarily governed by how boundary conditions impact first and second moments.