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Temporal Data Mining Using Multilevel-Local Polynomial Models

Weiqiang LinContact Information, Mehmet A. OrgunContact Information and Graham J. WilliamsContact Information

(6)  Department of Computing, Macquarie University Sydney, 2109, NSW, Australia
(7)  CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, GPO Box 664, 2601 Canberra, ACT, Australia
Abstract
This study proposes a data mining framework to discover qualitative and quantitative patterns in discrete-valued time series(DTS). In our method, there are three levels for mining temporal patterns. At the first level, a structural method based on distance measures through polynomial modelling is employed to find pattern structures; the second level performs a value-based search using local polynomial analysis; and then the third level based on multilevel-local polynomial models(MLPMs), finds global patterns from a DTS set. We demonstrate our method on the analysis of “Exchange Rates Patterns” between the U.S. dollar and Australian dollar.

Contact Information Weiqiang Lin
Email: wlin@comp.mq.edu.au

Contact Information Mehmet A. Orgun
Email: mehmet@comp.mq.edu.au

Contact Information Graham J. Williams
Email: Graham.Williams@cmis.csiro.au
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