Assessing the cost-effectiveness of long-term treatment for osteoporosis requires use of mathematical models to estimate
health effects and costs for competing interventions. The primary motivations for model-based analyses include the lack of
long-term clinical trial outcome data and the lack of data comparing all relevant treatments within randomized clinical trials.
We report on specific modeling challenges that arose in the development of a model of the natural history of postmenopausal
osteoporosis that is suitable for assessing the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis interventions among various population
subgroups in diverse countries. These include choice of modeling changes in bone mineral density (BMD) or in fracture rate,
definition of health states, modeling mortality and costs of long-term care following fracture, incorporation of health utility,
and model validation. This report should facilitate future postmenopausal osteoporosis model development and provide insight
for decision-makers who must evaluate model-based economic analyses of postmenopausal osteoporosis interventions.
Key words:Cost-effectiveness analysis – Decision analysis – Osteoporosis – Postmenopausal women – Quality of life – Risk factors
Received: 14 November 2000 / Accepted: 9 April 2001