Volume 37, Number 2, 287-301, DOI: 10.1007/s00181-008-0233-y

A comprehensive German business cycle chronology

Beate Schirwitz

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Abstract

Business cycle chronologies offer reference points for empirical studies used as benchmarks for business cycle and recession theory. A quasi-official chronology exists for the US economy, but not for most European countries, including Germany. While most papers dealing with business cycle dates rely on one specific method, I present and discuss a number of different dating approaches based on the classical business cycle. These are applied to German GDP data comprising 1970–2006. Finally, based on the results of the different methods, a consensus business cycle chronology for the German economy is suggested.

Keywords  Business cycles - Turning points - Business cycle dating algorithm - Non-parametric - Markov-switching

JEL Classification  E32 - C14 - C22


I gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from Klaus Wälde and two anonymous referees. I also benefited from comments by Klaus-Jürgen Gern and the participants of a workshop in Dresden and a seminar in Würzburg.

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