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Potential-Based Algorithms in Online Prediction and Game Theory

Nicolò Cesa-BianchiContact Information and Gábor LugosiContact Information

(3)  Dept. of Information Technologies, University of Milan, Via Bramante 65, 26013 Crema, Italy
(4)  Department of Economics, Pompeu Fabra University, Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27, 08005 Barcelona, Spain
Abstract
In this paper we show that several known algorithms for sequential prediction problems (including the quasi-additive family of Grove et al. and Littlestone and Warmuth’s Weighted Majority), for playing iterated games (including Freund and Schapire’s Hedge and MW, as well as the Λ-strategies of Hart and Mas-Colell), and for boosting (including AdaBoost) are special cases of a general decision strategy based on the notion of potential. By analyzing this strategy we derive known performance bounds, as well as new bounds, as simple corollaries of a single general theorem. Besides offering a new and unified view on a large family of algorithms, we establish a connection between potential-based analysis in learning and their counterparts independently developed in game theory. By exploiting this connection, we show that certain learning problems are instances of more general game-theoretic problems. In particular, we describe a notion of generalized regret and show its applications in learning theory.

Keywords and phrases  universal prediction - on-line learning - Blackwell’s strategy - Perceptron algorithm - weighted average predictors - internal regret - boosting


Contact Information Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi
Email: cesa-bianchi@dti.unimi.it

Contact Information Gábor Lugosi
Email: lugosi@upf.es
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