This paper studies the properties and determinants of managers’ multi-year financial forecasts. Using one- to five-year-ahead
forecasts reported by private venture-backed firms, we ask whether, by how much, and why biases in managers’ forecasts of
revenues, expenses and profits depend on the forecasting horizon and the verifiability of assets. We find that profitability
forecasts contain a strategic component, in that [1] one-year-ahead revenue (expense) forecasts are slightly and asymmetrically
pessimistic (optimistic), while five-year-ahead forecasts are hugely and asymmetrically optimistic (pessimistic); and [2]
biases in revenue and expense forecasts are larger, the harder to verify or more intangible-intensive are firms’ assets.
Keywords Management forecasts - Optimism - Strategic biases - Venture capital
JEL Classifications G24 - M13 - M41