Research shows that eyewitnesses often become more confident with their selections from a lineup over time, a problem labeled
“confidence inflation.” Wells et al. (
1998)
Law and Human Behavior, 22, 603–647 suggested that eyewitnesses provide a confidence statement immediately following their selection to capture an unadulterated
measure of confidence. Three experiments tested the effectiveness of introducing such a statement to combat the effects of
confidence inflation on mock-juror judgments. All experiments provided evidence that the attributions participants formed
about the eyewitness’ confidence inflation differentially impacted their judgments. Although mock-jurors generally discredited
eyewitnesses who showed confidence inflation and sometimes lowered probability of guilt ratings for the defendant, a clear
exception occurred when mock-jurors attributed the inflation to an epiphany. Use of post-identification confidence statements
to decrease the impact of confidence inflation in the courtroom may be insufficient.
Keywords Eyewitness - Confidence - Inflation - Identification - Inconsistency