Volume 32, Number 2, 164-176, DOI: 10.1007/s10979-007-9101-0

“I Had a Confidence Epiphany!”: Obstacles to Combating Post-Identification Confidence Inflation

Eric E. Jones, Kipling D. Williams and Neil Brewer

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Abstract

Research shows that eyewitnesses often become more confident with their selections from a lineup over time, a problem labeled “confidence inflation.” Wells et al. (1998) Law and Human Behavior, 22, 603–647 suggested that eyewitnesses provide a confidence statement immediately following their selection to capture an unadulterated measure of confidence. Three experiments tested the effectiveness of introducing such a statement to combat the effects of confidence inflation on mock-juror judgments. All experiments provided evidence that the attributions participants formed about the eyewitness’ confidence inflation differentially impacted their judgments. Although mock-jurors generally discredited eyewitnesses who showed confidence inflation and sometimes lowered probability of guilt ratings for the defendant, a clear exception occurred when mock-jurors attributed the inflation to an epiphany. Use of post-identification confidence statements to decrease the impact of confidence inflation in the courtroom may be insufficient.

Keywords  Eyewitness - Confidence - Inflation - Identification - Inconsistency

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