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Rule-Based Prediction of Rare Extreme Values
| Book Series | Lecture Notes in Computer Science |
| Publisher | Springer Berlin / Heidelberg |
| ISSN | 0302-9743 (Print) 1611-3349 (Online) |
| Volume | Volume 4265/2006 |
| Book | Discovery Science |
| DOI | 10.1007/11893318 |
| Copyright | 2006 |
| ISBN | 978-3-540-46491-4 |
| Category | II Long Papers |
| DOI | 10.1007/11893318_23 |
| Pages | 219-230 |
| Subject Collection | Computer Science |
| SpringerLink Date | Wednesday, October 11, 2006 |
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II Long Papers
Rule-Based Prediction of Rare Extreme Values
Rita Ribeiro1 and Luís Torgo2 
| (1) |
LIACC - University of Porto, R. Ceuta, 118, 6o, 4050-190 Porto, Portugal |
| (2) |
FEP/LIACC - University of Porto, R. Ceuta, 118, 6o, 4050-190 Porto, Portugal |
Abstract
This paper describes a rule learning method that obtains models biased towards a particular class of regression tasks. These
tasks have as main distinguishing feature the fact that the main goal is to be accurate at predicting rare extreme values
of the continuous target variable. Many real-world applications from scientific areas like ecology, meteorology, finance,etc.,
share this objective. Most existing approaches to regression problems search for the model parameters that optimize a given
average error estimator (e.g. mean squared error). This means that they are biased towards achieving a good performance on
the most common cases. The motivation for our work is the claim that being accurate at a small set of rare cases requires
different error metrics. Moreover, given the nature and relevance of this type of applications an interpretable model is usually
of key importance to domain experts, as predicting these rare events is normally associated with costly decisions. Our proposed
system (R-PREV) obtains a set of interpretable regression rules derived from a set of bagged regression trees using evaluation metrics that
bias the resulting models to predict accurately rare extreme values. We provide an experimental evaluation of our method confirming
the advantages of our proposal in terms of accuracy in predicting rare extreme values.
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