New development trends in electronic operating data logging systems enable classification, recording and storage of load spectrums
of mechanical transmission components during usage. Based on this fact, the application of online reliability evaluation and
reliability prediction procedures are presented. Different methods are considered to calculate reliability, depending on actual
load spectrum and a Wöhler curve. The prediction of a reliability trend is analyzed by the application of time series models.
For this purpose, exponential smoothing model, regression model, and the ARIMA model are considered to evaluate data and predict
an decreasing reliability trends during usage.
Keywords Reliability monitoring - damage accumulation hypothesis - reliability calculation
Matthias Maisch studied mechanical engineering at the University of Stuttgart, Germany, and graduated in 2002 with the Dipl.-Ing. degree
Afterwards he was scientific employee and Ph.D. candidate at the Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart,
Germany. Nowadays he works as reliability test engineer at Voith Turbo commercial vehicle transmission, Company, Germany.
His research interests include reliability calculations and reliability tests of machine components.
Bernd Bertsche is professor of mechanical engineering and head of the Institute of Machine Components, University of Stuttgart, Germany.
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Bertsche is also head of the reliability engineering department and CEO of the Technology Transfer Initiative
(TTI GmbH) of the University of Stuttgart. He published several papers in national and international reliability related conferences
like the Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium RAM’s and the European Safety and Reliability Conference (ESREL)
Ralf Hettich studied mechanical engineering at the University of Stuttg art, Germany, and graduated with the Dipl.-Ing. degree in 2004.
His research interests is reliability themes of mechanical components.