Hot Spot Analysis: Improving a Local Indicator of Spatial Association for Application in Traffic Safety
Elke Moons1
, Tom Brijs1 and Geert Wets1
| (1) |
Transportation Research Institute, Hasselt University, Science Park 1/15, 3590 Diepenbeek, Belgium |
Abstract
As in most European countries, traffic safety has become top priority in the National Safety Plan in Belgium. The first phase
in every safety analysis concerns the identification of the hazardous locations. In this respect, a local indicator of spatial
association (Moran’s I) is improved and applied to determine hot spots locations on highways in Limburg, a province in Belgium.
However, the analysis is complicated by the fact that accident data have a very specific nature: they form a Poisson random
process rather than a Gaussian random process and they are prone to sparseness. Therefore, the well-established indicator
needs some adaptations and simulations are required to determine the underlying distribution of Moran’s I. This paper emphasizes
the importance of using a correct distribution and indicates what could go wrong otherwise e.g. at policy level.
Keywords spatial statistics - local indicator of spatial association (LISA) - Moran’s I - hot spot accident analysis - traffic safety
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