In this study, an inexact multistage joint-probabilistic programming (IMJP) method is developed for tackling uncertainties
presented as interval values and joint probabilities. IMJP improves upon the existing multistage programming and inexact optimization
approaches, which can help examine the risk of violating joint-probabilistic constraints. Moreover, it can facilitate analyses
of policy scenarios that are associated with economic penalties when the promised targets are violated within a multistage
context. The developed method is applied to a case study of water-resources management within a multi-stream, multi-reservoir
and multi-period context, where mixed integer linear programming (MILP) technique is introduced into the IMJP framework to
facilitate dynamic analysis for decisions of surplus-flow diversion. The results indicate that reasonable solutions for continuous
and binary variables have been generated. They can be used to help water resources managers to identify desired system designs
against water shortage and for flood control, and to determine which of these designs can most efficiently accomplish optimizing
the system objective under uncertainty.
Keywords Dynamics - Inexact optimization - Multistage - Joint probability - Planning - Scenario analysis - Uncertainty - Water resources