We contribute to the debate over the contemporary relevance of the Austrian Business Cycle theory (ABC) by making three theoretical
developments. First, we claim that the heterogeneous nature of entrepreneurship is the best means to respond to a Rational
Expectations (RE) critique. If entrepreneurs are different then the “cluster of errors” are not made by everyone, just those
on the margin. And if the marginal entrepreneurs are systematically different from the population as a whole, we avoid the
implication of widespread irrationality, even though credit expansion will affect real variables. Second, we argue that the
size of the monetary footprint is a more telling signal than the market rate of interest, and will not necessarily be revealed
by measured inflation. Therefore attention to the official interest rate or Consumer Price Index is misleading, and an inappropriate
way to assess applicability. And third, the main harm from loose monetary policy is not that it encourages entrepreneurs to
behave more recklessly with capital, but that it encourages precisely the people who can’t afford capital at the market rate
to borrow, and makes them the marginal trader. This suggests that adverse selection is a more important issue than moral hazard.
We acknowledge that empirical work is required to verify these claims, and suggest how this might be undertaken.
Keywords Austrian business cycle theory - Heterogeneity - Monetary footprint - Adverse selection - Entrepreneur
This paper was presented as “Heterogeneous Entrepreneurs, the Monetary Footprint, and the Trade Cycle “at the 77th Annual
Meetings, Southern Economic Association, New Orleans, LO (November 2007). We appreciate the comments of Peter Boettke, Heurto
De Soto, Isaac DiIanni, Roger Garrison, Antony Mueller, Nick Schandler, Frank Shostak and two anonymous referees. The standard
disclaimer applies.