Crude oil and natural gas depletion may be modelled by a diffusion process based upon a constrained life-cycle. Here we consider
the Generalized Bass Model. The choice is motivated by the realistic assumption that there is a self-evident link between
oil and gas extraction and the spreading of the modern technologies in wide areas such as transport, heating, cooling, chemistry
and hydrocarbon fuels consumption. Such a model may include deterministic or semi-deterministic regulatory interventions.
Statistical analysis is based upon nonlinear methodologies and more flexible autoregressive structure of residuals. The technical
aim of this paper is to outline the meaningful hierarchy existing among the components of such diffusion models. Statistical
effort in residual component analysis may be read as a significant confirmation of a well-founded diffusion process under
rare but strong deterministic shocks. Applications of such ideas are proposed with reference to world oil and gas production
data and to particular regions such as mainland U.S.A., U.K., Norway and Alaska. The main results give new evidence in time-peaks
location and in residual
90%90\%
times to depletion.
Keywords: Generalized Bass model - oil peak - gas peak - nonlinear regression - diffusion process