Evidence of abrupt changes in ecosystem states, such as sudden eutrophication in lakes, has been increasingly reported in
a variety of aquatic and terrestrial systems. Ecosystems may have more than one state with a self-stabilizing mechanism, so
that a shift between states does not occur frequently and is not readily reversible. These big changes are termed regime shifts
where often one state is preferred over another. Thus, regime shifts are problematic for ecosystem managers, and the need
exists for studies that lead to the identification of thresholds of key variables that trigger regime shifts. Regime shifts
are currently difficult to predict and in many cases may be caused by the human pursuit of efficiency in land and water productivity
in the last few decades. Here I briefly introduce a theoretical approach to predict the shift between a clear-water state
and a turbid state in lakes, the best-studied example of regime shifts. This paper also discusses alternative states in other
natural systems besides ecosystems to draw more attention to the research currently being performed on regime shifts.
Keywords Ecosystem - Human impact - Management - Mathematical model - Regime shift
Motomi Genkai-Kato is the recipient of the 10th Denzaburo Miyadi Award.