We present several equilibrium runs under varying atmospheric CO
2 concentrations using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The model shows two very different
responses: for CO
2 concentrations of 400 ppm or lower, the system evolves into an equilibrium state. For CO
2 concentrations of 440 ppm or higher, the system starts oscillating between a state with vigorous deep water formation in
the Southern Ocean and a state with no deep water formation in the Southern Ocean. The
flushing events result in a rapid increase in atmospheric temperatures, degassing of CO
2 and therefore an increase in atmospheric CO
2 concentrations, and a reduction of sea ice cover in the Southern Ocean. They also cool the deep ocean worldwide. After the
flush, the deep ocean warms slowly again and CO
2 is taken up by the ocean until the stratification becomes unstable again at high latitudes thousands of years later. The
existence of a threshold in CO
2 concentration which places the UVic ESCM in either an oscillating or non-oscillating state makes our results intriguing.
If the UVic ESCM captures a mechanism that is present and important in the real climate system, the consequences would comprise
a rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of several tens of ppm, an increase in global surface temperature
of the order of 1–2°C, local temperature changes of the order of 6°C and a profound change in ocean stratification, deep water
temperature and sea ice cover.
Keywords Millenial-scale oscillations - Climate modelling - Nonlinear behavior of the climate system - Global warming scenarios - Carbon cycle