Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2005, Volume 3375/2005, 101-109, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-540-30573-6_8

Coupled Kermack-McKendrick Models for Randomly Scanning and Bandwidth-Saturating Internet Worms

George Kesidis, Ihab Hamadeh and Soranun Jiwasurat

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Abstract

We present a simple, deterministic mathematical model for the spread of randomly scanning and bandwidth-saturating Internet worms. Such worms include Slammer and Witty, both of which spread extremely rapidly. Our model, consisting of coupled Kermack-McKendrick equations, captures both the measured scanning activity of the worm and the network limitation of its spread, i.e., the effective scan-rate per worm/infective. We fit our model to available data for the Slammer worm and demonstrate its ability to accurately represent Slammer’s total scan-rate to the core.
This work is supported by both the NSF and DHS of the United States under NSF grant number 0335241.

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