Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2002, Volume 2278/2002, 90-103, DOI: 10.1007/3-540-45984-7_10

Evolving Classifiers to Model the Relationship between Strategy and Corporate Performance Using Grammatical Evolution

Anthony Brabazon, Michael O’Neill, Conor Ryan and Robin Matthews

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Abstract

This study examines the potential of grammatical evolution to construct a linear classifier to predict whether a firm’s corporate strategy will increase or decrease shareholder wealth. Shareholder wealth is measured using a relative fitness criterion, the change in a firm’s marketvalue- added ranking in the Stern-Stewart Performance 1000 list, over a four year period, 1992-1996. Model inputs and structure are selected by means of grammatical evolution. The best classifier correctly categorised the direction of performance ranking change in 66.38% of the firms in the training set and 65% in the out-of-sample validation set providing support for a hypothesis that changes in corporate strategy are linked to changes in corporate performance.

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