Even before the 1996 overhaul of the U.S. welfare system, a number of states had ended the practice of paying extra benefits
to families who have additional children while receiving welfare. Proponents believe that this reform can reduce births to
recipients, however many worry that it may encourage women to obtain abortions. Using a sample of unmarried AFDC recipients
from the NLSY, we estimate a bivariate probit model of pregnancy and, conditional on becoming pregnant, the probability of
abortion. Our results lend some support for the proposition that reducing incremental AFDC benefits will decrease pregnancies
without increasing abortions.
JEL classification: I38, J13
Key words: Welfare, abortion, fertility
Received: 16 April 1998/Accepted: 11 March 1999