This paper presents an effort to induce a Bayesian belief network (BBN) from crime data, namely the national crime victimization
survey (NCVS). This BBN defines a joint probability distribution over a set of variables that were employed to record a set
of crime incidents, with particular focus on characteristics of the victim. The goals are to generate a BBN to capture how
characteristics of crime incidents are related to one another, and to make this information available to domain specialists.
The novelty associated with the study reported in this paper lies in the use of a Bayesian network to represent a complex
data set to non-experts in a way that facilitates automated analysis. Validation of the BBN’s ability to approximate the joint
probability distribution over the set of variables entailed in the NCVS data set is accomplished through a variety of sources
including mathematical techniques and human experts for appropriate triangulation. Validation results indicate that the BBN
induced from the NCVS data set is a good joint probability model for the set of attributes in the domain, and accordingly
can serve as an effective query tool.
Keywords National crime victimization survey - Bayesian belief network - Machine learning - Probabilistic query - Posterior probability calculations - Joint probability distribution - Model validation