Climate is simulated for reference and mitigation emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models using the Bern2.5CC
carbon cycle–climate model. Mitigation options encompass all major radiative forcing agents. Temperature change is attributed
to forcings using an impulse–response substitute of Bern2.5CC. The contribution of CO
2 to global warming increases over the century in all scenarios. Non-CO
2 mitigation measures add to the abatement of global warming. The share of mitigation carried by CO
2, however, increases when radiative forcing targets are lowered, and increases after 2000 in all mitigation scenarios. Thus,
non-CO
2 mitigation is limited and net CO
2 emissions must eventually subside. Mitigation rapidly reduces the sulfate aerosol loading and associated cooling, partly
masking Greenhouse Gas mitigation over the coming decades. A profound effect of mitigation on CO
2 concentration, radiative forcing, temperatures and the rate of climate change emerges in the second half of the century.
Keywords Climate projections - Mitigation scenarios - Attribution of climate change - Earth system models of intermediate complexity - Carbon cycle