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Strength and Money: An LCS Approach to Increasing Returns
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Strength and Money: An LCS Approach to Increasing Returns
Sonia Schulenburg4 and Peter Ross4 
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School of Computing, Napier University, 219 Colinton Road, EH14 1DJ Edinburgh |
Abstract
This paper reports on a number of experiments where three different groups of artificial agents learn, forecast and trade
their holdings in a real stock market scenario given exogeneously in the form of easily-obtained stock statistics such as
various price moving averages, first difference in prices, volume ratios, etc. These artificial agent-types trade while learning
during - in most cases - a ten year period. They normally start at the beginning of the year 1990 with a fixed initial wealth
to trade over two assets (a bond and a stock) and end in the second half of the year 2000. The adaptive agents are represented
as Learning Classiffier Systems (LCSs), that is, as sets of bit-encoded rules. Each condition bit expresses the truth or falsehood
of a certain real market condition. The actual conditions used differ between agents. The forecasting performance is then
compared against the performance of the buy-and-hold strategy, a trend-following strategy and finally against the bank investment over the same period of time at a fixed compound interest rate. To make the experiments as real as possible, agents
pay commissions on every trade. The results so far suggest that this is an excellent approach to make trading decisions in
the stock market.
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