Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 1999, Volume 1676/1999, 802, DOI: 10.1007/3-540-48298-9_35

A New Modeling Technique Based on Markov Chains to Mine Behavioral Patterns in Event Based Time Series

S. Massa, M. Paolucci and P. P. Puliafito

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Abstract

A new modeling technique to mine information from data that are expressed in the form of events associated to entities is presented. In particular such a technique aims at extracting non-evident behavioral patterns from data in order to identify different classes of entities in the considered population. To represent the behavior of the entities a Markov chain model is adopted and the transition probabilities for such a model are computed. The information extracted by means of the proposed technique can be used as decisional support in a large range of problems, such as marketing or social behavioral questions. A case study concerning the university dropout problem is presented together with further development of Markov chain modeling technique in order to improve the prediction and/or interpretation power.

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