We deal with the arbitrariness in the choice of the prior over the models in Bayesian model averaging (BMA), by modelling prior knowledge by a set of priors (i.e., a prior credal set). We consider Dash and Cooper’s BMA applied to naive Bayesian networks, replacing the single prior over the naive models by a credal set; this models a condition close to prior ignorance about
the models, which leads to credal model averaging (CMA). CMA returns an indeterminate classification, i.e., multiple classes, on the instances for which the learning set is not informative enough to smooth the
effect of the choice of the prior. We give an algorithm to compute exact credal model averaging for naive networks. Extensive
experiments show that indeterminate classifications preserve the reliability of CMA on the instances which are classified
in a prior-dependent way by BMA.
Keywords Credal model averaging - Bayesian model averaging - imprecise probabilities - naive Bayes - classification - naive Bayesian networks