Volume 50, Number 2, 187-192, DOI: 10.1007/BF02459951

On the incompatibility of gompertz or weibull survival dynamics with exponentially distributed individual lifespans

Frank Guess and Matthew Witten

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Abstract

It is well documented, in the biological literature, that many species throughout the animal kingdom exhibit Gompertzian or Weibull-like population level total survival distributions. Many researchers have long assumed, believed, or otherwise postulated that an individual organism, in such a population, survived according to an exponential survival distribution. Using well-known results from reliability theory, it is shown that if every individual in the population has an exponentially distributed lifespan, then a Gompertzian or Weibull-like group/population level dynamics (or any other dynamics with a strictly increasing mortality rate for some interval) is not possible. This implies that, for species with a population level Gompertzian or Weibull (with the mortality rate strictly increasing) survival curve, some or all of the individual organisms must have non-exponentially distributed lifespans.

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