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Kernel Density Estimation Methods for a Geostatistical Approach in Seismic Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Potenza Hilltop Town (Southern Italy)
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Kernel Density Estimation Methods for a Geostatistical Approach in Seismic Risk Analysis: The Case Study of Potenza Hilltop
Town (Southern Italy)
Maria Danese1, 2 , Maurizio Lazzari1 and Beniamino Murgante2 
| (1) |
CNR-IBAM, C/da S. Loia Zona industriale, 85050-I Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy |
| (2) |
L.I.S.U.T. - D.A.P.I.T., University of Basilicata, Via dell’Ateneo Lucano 10, 85100 Potenza, Italy |
Abstract
This paper focuses on an overview of kernel density estimation especially for what concerns the choice of bandwidth and intensity
parameters according to local conditions. A case study inherent seismic risk analysis of the old town centre of Potenza hilltop
town has been discussed, with particular attention to the evaluation of the possible local amplifying factors. This first
integrated application of kernel density maps to analyse seismic damage scenarios with a geostatistical approach allowed to
evaluate the local geological, geomorphological and 1857 earthquake macroseismic data, offering a new point of view of civil
protection planning. The aim of geostatistical approach is to know seismic risk variability at local level, modelling and
visualizing it.
Keywords Kernel density estimation - bandwidth - seismic risk - spatial analysis - southern Italy - Potenza
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