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A possibilistic hierarchical model for behaviour under uncertainty

Gert de CoomanContact Information and Peter WalleyContact Information

(1) Onderzoeksgroep SYSTeMS, Universiteit Gent, Technologiepark 9, 9052 Zwijnaarde, Belgium

Abstract  Hierarchical models are commonly used for modelling uncertainty. They arise whenever there is a `correct'' or `ideal'' uncertainty model but the modeller is uncertain about what it is. Hierarchical models which involve probability distributions are widely used in Bayesian inference. Alternative models which involve possibility distributions have been proposed by several authors, but these models do not have a clear operational meaning. This paper describes a new hierarchical model which is mathematically equivalent to some of the earlier, possibilistic models and also has a simple behavioural interpretation, in terms of betting rates concerning whether or not a decision maker will agree to buy or sell a risky investment for a specified price. We give a representation theorem which shows that any consistent model of this kind can be interpreted as a model for uncertainty about the behaviour of a Bayesian decision maker. We describe how the model can be used to generate buying and selling prices and to make decisions.

Buying function - Fuzzy probability - Imprecise hierarchical model - Imprecise probability - Possibilistic coherence - Possibility distribution - Possibility measure - Price function - Second-order uncertainty - Upper and lower probability


Contact InformationGert de Cooman
Email: gert.decooman@rug.ac.be

Contact InformationPeter Walley
Email: pwalley@eudoramail.com
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