The conditional volatility of foreign exchange rates can be predicted using GARCH models or implied volatility extracted from
currency options. This paper investigates whether these predictions are economically meaningful in trading strategies that
are designed only to trade volatility risk. First, this article provides new evidence on the issue of information content
of implied volatility and GARCH volatility in forecasting future variance. In an artificial world without transaction costs
both delta-neutral and straddle trading stratgies lead to significant positive profits, regardless of which volatility prediction
method is used. Specifically, the agent using the Implied Stochastic Volatility Regression method (ISVR) earns larger profits
than the agent using the GARCH method. Second, it suggests that the currency options market is informationally efficient.
After accounting for transaction costs, which are assumed to equal one percent of option prices, observed profits are not
significantly differentfrom zero in most trading strategies. Finally, these strategies offered returns have higher Sharpe
ratio and lower correlation with several major asset classes. Consequently, hedge funds and institutional investors who are
seeking alternative “marketneutral” investment methods can use volatility trading to improvethe risk-return profile of their
portfolio through diversification.
implied volatility - GARCH model - delta - straddle-hedge - trading strategies - C32
This revised version was published online in November 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.