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Detecting Errors in Foreign Trade Transactions: Dealing with Insufficient Data

Luis Torgo23, 24 Contact Information, Welma Pereira23 Contact Information and Carlos Soares23, 25 Contact Information

(23)  LIAAD-INESC Porto, Univ. of Porto, R. Ceuta, 118, 6., 4050-190 Porto, Portugal
(24)  Faculdade de Ciências, University of Porto,  
(25)  Faculdade de Economia, University of Porto,  
Abstract
This paper describes a data mining approach to the problem of detecting erroneous foreign trade transactions in data collected by the Portuguese Institute of Statistics (INE). Erroneous transactions are a minority, but still they have an important impact on the official statistics produced by INE. Detecting these rare errors is a manual, time-consuming task, which is constrained by a limited amount of available resources (e.g. financial, human). These constraints are common to many other data analysis problems (e.g. fraud detection). Our previous work addresses this issue by producing a ranking of outlyingness that allows a better management of the available resources by allocating them to the most relevant cases. It is based on an adaptation of hierarchical clustering methods for outlier detection. However, the method cannot be applied to articles with a small number of transactions. In this paper, we complement the previous approach with some standard statistical methods for outlier detection for handling articles with few transactions. Our experiments clearly show its advantages in terms of the criteria outlined by INE for considering any method applicable to this business problem. The generality of the approach remains to be tested in other problems which share the same constraints (e.g. fraud detection).

Contact Information Luis Torgo
Email: ltorgo@liaad.up.pt
URL: http://www.liaad.up.pt/~ltorgo

Contact Information Welma Pereira
Email: welma.pereira@gmail.com

Contact Information Carlos Soares
Email: csoares@fep.up.pt
URL: http://www.liaad.up.pt/~csoares
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