The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, summarises in Box 13.7 the required emission reduction ranges in Annex
I and non-Annex I countries as a group, to achieve greenhouse gas concentration stabilisation levels between 450 and 650 ppm
CO
2-eq. The box summarises the results of the IPCC authors’ analysis of the literature on the regional allocation of the emission
reductions. The box states that Annex I countries as a group would need to reduce their emissions to below 1990 levels in
2020 by 25% to 40% for 450 ppm, 10% to 30% for 550 ppm and 0% to 25% for 650 ppm CO
2-eq, even if emissions in developing countries deviate substantially from baseline for the low concentration target. In this
paper, the IPCC authors of Box 13.7 provide background information and analyse whether new information, obtained after completion
of the IPCC report, influences these ranges. The authors concluded that there is no argument for updating the ranges in Box
13.7. The allocation studies, which were published after the writing of the IPCC report, show reductions in line with the
reduction ranges in the box. From the studies analysed, this paper specifies the “substantial deviation” or “deviation from
baseline” in the box: emissions of non-Annex I countries as a group have to be below the baseline roughly between 15% to 30%
for 450 ppm CO
2-eq, 0% to 20% for 550 ppm CO
2-eq and from 10% above to 10% below the baseline for 650 ppm CO
2-eq, in 2020. These ranges apply to the whole group of non-Annex I countries and may differ substantially per country. The
most important factor influencing these ranges above, for non-Annex I countries, and in the box, for Annex I countries, is
new information on higher baseline emissions (e.g. that of Sheehan, Climatic Change,
2008, this issue). Other factors are the assumed global emission level in 2020 and assumptions on land-use change and forestry
emissions. The current, slow pace in climate policy and the steady increase in global emissions, make it almost unfeasible
to reach relatively low global emission levels in 2020 needed to meet 450 ppm CO
2-eq, as was first assumed feasible by some studies, 5 years ago.