The main objective of this paper is to illustrate, using Mexican data, how the results yield by modern econometric methods
are dependent upon each specific technique as well as upon the statistical properties of the series analyzed. The problems
are even stronger and more evident in the case of economic series with structural changes and high variability as is the case
of Mexico. Applied econometrics should be explicitly based upon a probability viewpoint, and different methods should be taken
to produce only approximations to the actual data generation process. Thus, alternative techniques can only show distinctive
features of the actual data that still need to be validated with the rest of empirical evidence. This indicates that applied
econometricians have to look for maximum information by correctly applying different techniques without forgetting the relevance
of economic reasoning. Using Mexican data, alternative econometric estimations are evaluated indicating that the formulation
of a monetary policy only on the basis of some specific technique, without considering its potential pitfalls, should not
be recommended.
We appreciate the comments to an early version of this document by Lionello Punzo and Martín Puchet. The econometric estimations
were performed by Eduardo Alatorre. The usual disclaimer applies here. This project was elaborated under the support of PAPIIT,
UNAM: Monetary and financial policy and the effects of the opening of the external sector: an econometric approach, IN 304702.