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Temporal Data Mining Using Hidden Markov-Local Polynomial Models
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Temporal Data Mining Using Hidden Markov-Local Polynomial Models
Weiqiang Lin4 , Mehmet A. Orgun4 and Graham J. Williams5 
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Department of Computing, Macquarie University Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia |
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CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, GPO Box 664, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia |
Abstract
This study proposes a data mining framework to discover qualitative and quantitative patterns in discrete-valued time series
(DTS). In our method, there are three levels for mining similarity and periodicity patterns. At the first level, a structural-based
search based on distance measure models is employed to find pattern structures; the second level performs a value-based search
on the discovered patterns using local polynomial analysis; and then the third level based on hidden Markov-local polynomial
models (HMLPMs), finds global patterns from a DTS set.We demonstrate our method on the analysis of“Exchange Rates Patterns”
between the U.S. dollar and the United Kingdom Pound.
Keywords temporal data mining - discrete-valued time series - similarity patterns - periodicity analysis - local polynomial modelling - hidden Markov models
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