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Temporal Data Mining Using Hidden Markov-Local Polynomial Models

Weiqiang LinContact Information, Mehmet A. OrgunContact Information and Graham J. WilliamsContact Information

(4)  Department of Computing, Macquarie University Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia
(5)  CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, GPO Box 664, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
Abstract
This study proposes a data mining framework to discover qualitative and quantitative patterns in discrete-valued time series (DTS). In our method, there are three levels for mining similarity and periodicity patterns. At the first level, a structural-based search based on distance measure models is employed to find pattern structures; the second level performs a value-based search on the discovered patterns using local polynomial analysis; and then the third level based on hidden Markov-local polynomial models (HMLPMs), finds global patterns from a DTS set.We demonstrate our method on the analysis of“Exchange Rates Patterns” between the U.S. dollar and the United Kingdom Pound.

Keywords  temporal data mining - discrete-valued time series - similarity patterns - periodicity analysis - local polynomial modelling - hidden Markov models


Contact Information Weiqiang Lin
Email: wlin@ics.mq.edu.au

Contact Information Mehmet A. Orgun
Email: mehmet@ics.mq.edu.au

Contact Information Graham J. Williams
Email: Graham.Williams@cmis.csiro.au
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