Quantitative criminology focuses on straightforward causal questions that are ideally addressed with randomized experiments.
In practice, however, traditional randomized trials are difficult to implement in the untidy world of criminal justice. Even
when randomized trials are implemented, not everyone is treated as intended and some control subjects may obtain experimental
services. Treatments may also be more complicated than a simple yes/no coding can capture. This paper argues that the instrumental
variables methods (IV) used by economists to solve omitted variables bias problems in observational studies also solve the
major statistical problems that arise in imperfect criminological experiments. In general, IV methods estimate causal effects
on subjects who comply with a randomly assigned treatment. The use of IV in criminology is illustrated through a re-analysis
of the Minneapolis domestic violence experiment. The results point to substantial selection bias in estimates using treatment
delivered as the causal variable, and IV estimation generates deterrent effects of arrest that are about one-third larger
than the corresponding intention-to-treat effects.
Key words causal effects - domestic violence - local average treatment effects - non-compliance - two-stage least squares