Volume 7, Supplement 1, 511-534, DOI: 10.1007/BF01886211

Country fund discounts and the mexican crisis of December 1994: Did local residents turn pessimistic before international investors?

Jeffrey A. Frankel and Sergio L. Schmukler

View Related Documents

Abstract

It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the ldquofront-runnersrdquo in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own economy, perhaps due to asymmetric information, prompted Mexican investors to be the first ones to leave the country. This paper investigates whether data from three Mexican country funds provide evidence that supports the ldquodivergent expectationsrdquo hypothesis. We find that, right before the devaluation, Mexican fund Net Asset Values (mainly driven by Mexican investors) dropped first and/or faster than Mexican country fund prices (mainly driven by foreign investors). Moreover, we find that Mexican NAVs tend to Granger-cause the country fund prices. This suggests that causality, in some sense, flows from the Mexico City investor community to the Wall Street investor community.

Key words  country fund - crisis - emerging markets - equities - expectations - asymmetric - divergent - heterogeneous - Mexico - peso

JEL classification  F30 - F34 - G15

Fulltext Preview

Image of the first page of the fulltext document