Volume 7, Number 4, 253-261, DOI: 10.1023/A:1018550505678

The calibration of P-values, posterior Bayes factors and the AIC from the posterior distribution of the likelihood

Murray Aitkin

View Related Documents

Abstract

The posterior distribution of the likelihood is used to interpret the evidential meaning of P-values, posterior Bayes factors and Akaike's information criterion when comparing point null hypotheses with composite alternatives. Asymptotic arguments lead to simple re-calibrations of these criteria in terms of posterior tail probabilities of the likelihood ratio. (lsquoPriorrsquo) Bayes factors cannot be calibrated in this way as they are model-specific.

P-value - likelihood - posterior distribution - Bayes factor - fractional Bayes factor - posterior Bayes factor - AIC

Fulltext Preview

Image of the first page of the fulltext document