Studies that have found an association between unemployment and psychological depression often fail to establish the direction
of causal influence. Analyses of Epidemiologic Catchment Area panel data revealed that of employed respondents not diagnosed
with major depression at first interview, those who became unemployed had over twice the risk of increased depressive symptoms
and of becoming clinically depressed as those who continued employed. Although the increase in symptoms was statistically
significant, the effect on clinical depression was not, possibly because of the low power of the test. The reverse causal
path from clinical depression at Time 1 to becoming unemployed by Time 2 was not supported. The unemployment rate in the respondent's
community at time of interview was not related directly to psychological depression but appeared associated indirectly with
depression via its impact on the risk of becoming unemployed. Implications for policy and further research were discussed.
Key words unemployment - depression - panel - stress - anxiety
The research described in this paper was supported by Grant #5 RO1 AA08379-02 from the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse
and Alcoholism. The authors appreciate the suggestions provided by members of the Consortium for Research Involving Stress
Processes sponsored by the W. T. Grant Foundation and by two anonymous journal reviewers.