Welcome!
To use the personalized features of this site, please log in or register.
If you have forgotten your username or password, we can help.
My Menu
Saved Items

Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services

Åke ArvidssonContact Information, Anders HederstiernaContact Information and Stefan HellmerContact Information

(1)  Ericsson AB, Box 1505, SE-125 25 Älvsjö, Sweden
(2)  School of Management, Blekinge Institute of Technology, SE-372 27 Ronneby, Sweden
Abstract
We consider the problems of explaining and forecasting the penetration and the traffic in cellular mobile networks. To this end, we create two regression models, viz. one to predict the penetration from service charges and network effects and another one to predict the traffic from service charges and diffusion and adoption effects. The results of the models can also be combined to compute the likely evolutions of essential characteristics such as Minutes of Use (MoU), Average Revenue per User (ARPU) and total revenue. Applying the models to 26 markets throughout the world we show that they perform very well. Noting the significant qualitative differences between these markets, we conclude that the model has some universality in that the results are comparable for all of them.

Contact Information Åke Arvidsson
Email: Ake.Arvidsson@ericsson.com

Contact Information Anders Hederstierna
Email: Anders.Hederstierna@bth.se

Contact Information Stefan Hellmer
Email: Stefan.Hellmer@bth.se
Fulltext Preview (Small, Large)
Image of the first page of the fulltext

References secured to subscribers.



Export this chapter
Export this chapter as RIS | Text
 
Remote Address: 38.107.191.113 • Server: mpweb21
HTTP User Agent: CCBot/1.0 (+http://www.commoncrawl.org/bot.html)