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Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services
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Simple and Accurate Forecasting of the Market for Cellular Mobile Services
Åke Arvidsson1 , Anders Hederstierna2 and Stefan Hellmer2 
| (1) |
Ericsson AB, Box 1505, SE-125 25 Älvsjö, Sweden |
| (2) |
School of Management, Blekinge Institute of Technology, SE-372 27 Ronneby, Sweden |
Abstract
We consider the problems of explaining and forecasting the penetration and the traffic in cellular mobile networks. To this
end, we create two regression models, viz. one to predict the penetration from service charges and network effects and another one to predict the traffic from service
charges and diffusion and adoption effects. The results of the models can also be combined to compute the likely evolutions
of essential characteristics such as Minutes of Use (MoU), Average Revenue per User (ARPU) and total revenue. Applying the
models to 26 markets throughout the world we show that they perform very well. Noting the significant qualitative differences
between these markets, we conclude that the model has some universality in that the results are comparable for all of them.
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