In this paper, the impact of the West German pension system on the retirement decisions of elderly citizens is analyzed within
the framework of a discrete-time hazard rate model deduced from a micro-economic decision rule. The model is estimated using
a panel dataset of elderly West German citizens. In order to improve the precision of the estimates obtained, the data from
the sample are combined with aggregate-level information on the labour force participation behaviour of the elderly. Policy
simulations based on the estimates reveal that the probability of early retirement can be reduced significantly by appropriate
changes in the pension system.
JEL classification: C32, C41, J26
Key words: Retirement - pensions - hazard rates
Received September 6, 1995 / Accepted: August 28, 1996