Outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) from January 1982 through December 2003 were used to examine variations in serotype-
and species-specific risk for three control programmes in Colombia:(1982–1983) vaccination, using an aluminium hydroxide,
saponin adjuvant, required but not enforced; (1984–1996) vaccination, using an oil double-emulsion adjuvant, required but
not enforced; and (1997–2003) enforced vaccination, using an oil double-emulsion adjuvant, restricted animal movement enforced,
and slaughter of infected animals. Hypotheses were tested for trend, cyclicity and seasonality in FMD occurrence, and for
species- and serotype-specific differences in morbidity and case-fatality. The spatial density of outbreaks was estimated
by kernel smoothing. The frequency of outbreaks decreased most between 1984 and 1996 (
p < 0.01) for serotype A and between 1997 and 2003 (
p < 0.01) for serotype O. Outbreaks occurred in cycles of 3–4 years for both serotypes (
p < 0.05). Morbidity was not significantly different in pigs from that in cattle for serotype A-associated outbreaks (
p = 0.314), but was higher in pigs than in cattle (
p = 0.019) for serotype O-associated outbreaks. For both serotypes, case-fatality was higher for pigs than for cattle (
p < 0.009). Temporal variation in FMD incidence provided insight into the expected evolution of FMD control for countries with
similar conditions and where FMD is endemic.
Keywords foot-and-mouth disease - epidemiology - control programme - Colombia