In ecology textbooks prior to the 1970s, Aldo Leopold’s classic story of predator control, overpopulation of deer, and habitat
degradation on the Kaibab Plateau during the 1920s epitomized predator regulation of herbivore populations. However, the story
disappeared from texts in the late 20th century after several papers noted uncertainties in estimations of the deer population
and provided alternative explanations. We re-examined the case study by determining the age structure of aspen (
Populus tremuloides Michx.) on the plateau. Aspen comprises the majority of deer browse in the summer, and the absence of a normal cohort of
aspen from the 1920s would indicate deer overpopulation. The number of aspen (at 1.4 m) dating to the 1920s was an order of
magnitude lower than the null expectation. Other periods of unusual numbers of aspen included high numbers of aspen dating
to the 1880s and 1890s (when regular surface fires ceased), few aspen dating from 1953 to 1962 (after a second irruption of
the deer population), and very high numbers from 1968 to 1992 (coincident with widespread logging). These convergent lines
of evidence support the idea of extreme deer herbivory in the 1920s, consistent with food limitation of deer at high populations
(bottom–up control) and predation limitation at low deer populations (top–down control). Some uncertainty remains within the
overall story, and this level of ambiguity is common in case studies that involve population ecology, land management, and
people at the scale of 1,000 km
2 and 100 years. A complete version of the Kaibab deer story and its history would be a valuable, realistic case study for
ecology texts.
Keywords deer population - irruption - Kaibab Plateau - Grand Canyon - fire history