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Modeling Facts, Culture, and Cognition in the Gun Debate
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Modeling Facts, Culture, and Cognition in the Gun Debate
Donald Braman1, Dan M. Kahan1, 3 and James Grimmelmann2
| (1) |
Yale Law School, New Haven, Connecticut |
| (2) |
United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, Newark, New Jersey |
| (3) |
Yale Law School, P.O. Box 208215, New Haven, Connecticut, 06511 |
Abstract Can empirical data generate consensus about how to regulate firearms? If so, under what conditions? Previously, we presented
evidence that individuals' cultural worldviews explain their positions on gun control more powerfully than any other fact
about them, including their race or gender, the type of community or region of the country they live in, and even their political
ideology or party affiliation. On this basis, we inferred that culture is prior to facts in the gun debate: empirical data
can be expected to persaude individuals to change their view on gun policies only after those individuals come to see those policies as compatible with their core cultural commitments. We now respond to critics.
Canvassing the psychological literature, we identify the mechanisms that systematically induce individuals to conform their
factual beliefs about guns to their culturally grounded moral evaluations of them. To illustrate the strength and practical
implications of these dynamics, we develop a series of computer simulations, which show why public beliefs about the efficacy
of gun control can be expected to remain highly polarized even in the face of compelling empirical evidence. Finally, we show
that the contribution culture makes to cognition could potentially be harnessed to generate broad, cross-cultural consensus: if gun policies can be framed in terms that are expressively compatible with diverse cultural worldviews, the motivation
to resist compelling empirical evidence will dissipate, and individuals of diverse cultural persuasions can be expected rapidly
to converge in their beliefs about what policies are best. Constructing a new, expressively pluralistic idiom of gun control
should therefore be the first priority of policy-makers and -analysts interested in promoting the adoption of sound gun policies.
Keywords cultural cognition - deliberation - group polarization - gun control
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